Pay Raises for Low-Income Earners Shows Strength in US Economy


We are now almost a decade into a recovery from the worst US recession in generations, and investors everywhere continue to wonder when “the other shoe is going to drop.” That feeling is understandable when you consider that the average economic expansion historically has been about four years, and this recovery is now more than [...]

Is Europe Set for a Rebound?


As our clients and readers of our newsletters know, we’ve been relatively big proponents of investing internationally — both in Europe and in “emerging markets” over the last 18 to 24 months. We have taken this stance largely as a result of our central discipline and guiding belief — that assets tend to revert to [...]

What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for the Markets?

donald trump

Two years ago, I said several times in meetings with clients that I believed America was tired of having someone named “Bush” or “Clinton” in the White House. The electorate was ready for someone new. On that much, at least, I was right. (Although I’ll not comment here on the accuracy of my comments around [...]

Behavioral Finance Reveals How Bias May Hurt Your Investing

Behavioral Bias may hurt Investing Results

“He must have been dropped on his head a lot when he was a child.” Clearly, we don’t often use this phrase to say that someone is a great investor. But maybe we should? Researchers have learned a lot about the human brain in the last few decades. One study from Stanford University examined how a [...]

There’s Always Room for Growth

There's Always Room for Growth

Last month, an article “Ending America’s Slow-Growth Tailspin” by economist John H. Cochrane was featured in the Wall Street Journal. The author is a senior research fellow at the Hoover Institute – a large research think-tank out of Stanford University. This article is incredibly important because it plainly states what I have been saying for [...]

Our Take on Brexit and the Markets

Map of Europe with Brexit and Britain

We were as surprised as anyone with the results of the Brexit vote. In a historic decision, last Thursday the British people voted to break away from the European Union. Needless to say, this was a huge surprise to the market, the media, and the political class. (As an aside, I think that just goes [...]

Though the Jobs Report is Dismal, That’s Not the Real News

Table of Various Assets and Returns for June 3rd, 2016

This morning a weak jobs report came out, sending stocks down and bonds up. That’s pretty normal behavior in the markets. However, emerging market stocks and bonds were actually up on the news, based on the assumption that the dollar will suffer because the Fed will be more hesitant to raise interest rates in the [...]

Full Employment: Are We There Yet?


  A recent Pew Research Center poll showed that only about 19% of Americans trust their government. This is a historically low level for the measure, which shockingly at one point in the 1950s actually reached the 70% range. There are undoubtedly a myriad of reasons for this, which are beyond the scope of this post. [...]

Are We in a Lower Return Environment?

image source:

In recent meetings with clients, we have often presented a graphic that shows the average annual returns of the U.S. stock and bond markets from 1986 to today. Why that particular 30-year time period? Because it almost exactly corresponds to my career in the investment business. It also, coincidentally, parallels a historic bull market in [...]

Don’t Miss Out on Low Mortgage Rates

source: via the Wall Street Journal

“It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.” Perhaps Charles Dickens’ iconic line has never been more appropriate. Twenty years from now, we may look back at 2016 and marvel at the unique set of economic forces at play: a near-zero interest rate environment on the part of nearly every developed [...]